Pandemic Turns Two

As we mark the second anniversary of the Covid-19 pandemic today (March 11, 2020 was when the WHO declared the coronavirus disease as a pandemic), I thought it would be interesting to compare it with other historical pandemics once again.

The most recent pandemic before the current one was the Spanish flu outbreak that took place right after World War I. It was caused by an H1N1 virus outbreak (origin unknown but suspected to be Kansas, USA!) that spread worldwide during 1918-1919. It was carried to all corners of the world by troops returning home from combat and infected 1/3rd of the world's population (500 million people). The death count was over 50 million people.

We are fast approaching the same number of infections for Covid-19, with the worldwide number of infections reported to be over 450 million today according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The number of deaths, thankfully, is much lower than the Spanish flu, but is still a shockingly high number exceeding 6 million (and counting!).

JHU Covid-19 dashboard on March 11, 2022

Other similarities between the Spanish flu and Covid-19 pandemics are equally striking. Except for the absence of a vaccine to protect against the virus, the measures used to combat the spread of the 1918 pandemic were largely the same as those used for the current pandemic (over 100 years later!) The most striking similarity is the utilization of mask mandates in both pandemics. Other common measures include isolation, school closures, banning public gatherings and washing hands frequently.

Public wearing mask during the Spanish flu

And apparently, there was resistance to mask ordinances even back then just as we are seeing today!

Photograph of a maskless man being denied entry into a San Francisco trolley during the 1918 pandemic

Seeing all the similarities makes one wonder if the covid-19 pandemic will follow the same path as the 1918 one. The Spanish flu had three big waves with the second being the most lethal. The third was the most contagious but was relatively mild. There are reports of a milder fourth wave but by all accounts, the great pandemic of the 20th century disappeared without a trace by the end of the second year. Covid-19 too has seen three big waves (and a few smaller ones) but the third omicron wave has been relatively mild compared to the second delta wave, so hopefully, it signals the same pattern towards disappearance. Here's to NOT marking a third anniversary of the pandemic a year from today!

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